Incidence and Prediction of Unrelated Mortality After Successful Endoscopic Eradication Therapy for Barrett's Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Follow-up (FU) strategies after endoscopic eradication therapy (EET) for Barrett's neoplasia do not consider the risk of mortality from causes other than esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We aimed to evaluate this risk during long-term FU, and to assess whether the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) can predict mortality. METHODS: We included all patients with successful EET from the nationwide Barrett registry in the Netherlands. Data were merged with National Statistics for accurate mortality data. We evaluated annual mortality rates (AMRs, per 1000 person-years) and standardized mortality ratio for other-cause mortality. Performance of the CCI was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 1154 patients with a mean age of 64 years (±9). During median 59 months (p25-p75 37-91; total 6375 person-years), 154 patients (13%) died from other causes than EAC (AMR, 24.1; 95% CI, 20.5-28.2), most commonly non-EAC cancers (n = 58), cardiovascular (n = 31), or pulmonary diseases (n = 26). Four patients died from recurrent EAC (AMR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.1-1.4). Compared with the general Dutch population, mortality was significantly increased for patients in the lowest 3 age quartiles (ie, age <71 years). Validation of CCI in our population showed good discrimination (Concordance statistic, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.72-0.84) and fair calibration. CONCLUSION: The other-cause mortality risk after successful EET was more than 40 times higher (48; 95% CI, 15-99) than the risk of EAC-related mortality. Our findings reveal that younger post-EET patients exhibit a significantly reduced life expectancy when compared with the general population. Furthermore, they emphasize the strong predictive ability of CCI for long-term mortality after EET. This straightforward scoring system can inform decisions regarding personalized FU, including appropriate cessation timing. (NL7039).

Vertical tumor-positive resection margins and the risk of residual neoplasia after endoscopic resection of Barrett's neoplasia: a nationwide cohort with pathology reassessment.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the proportion of patients with residual neoplasia after endoscopic resection (ER) for Barrett's neoplasia with confirmed tumor-positive vertical resection margin (R1v). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients undergoing ER for Barrett's neoplasia with histologically documented R1v since 2008 in the Dutch Barrett Expert Centers. We defined R1v as cancer cells touching vertical resection margins and Rx as nonassessable margins. Reassessment of R1v specimens was performed by experienced pathologists until consensus was reached regarding vertical margins. RESULTS: 101/110 included patients had macroscopically complete resections (17 T1a, 84 T1b), and 99/101 (98%) ER specimens were histologically reassessed, with R1v confirmed in 74 patients (75%), Rx in 16%, and R0 in 9%. Presence/absence of residual neoplasia could be assessed in 66/74 patients during endoscopic reassessment (52) and/or in the surgical resection specimen (14), and 33/66 (50%) had residual neoplasia. Residual neoplasia detected during endoscopy was always endoscopically visible and biopsies from a normal-appearing ER scar did not detect additional neoplasia. Of 25 patients who underwent endoscopic follow-up (median 37 months [interquartile range 12-50]), 4 developed local recurrence (16.0%), all detected as visible abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: After ER with R1v, 50% of patients had no residual neoplasia. Histological evaluation of ER margins appears challenging, as in this study 75% of documented R1v cases were confirmed during reassessment. Endoscopic reassessment 8-12 weeks after ER seems to accurately detect residual neoplasia and can help to determine the most appropriate strategy for patients with R1v.

Endoscopic full-thickness resection of a solitary ovarian carcinoma colorectal metastasis.

A woman in her 70s with a medical history of recurrent ovarian carcinoma was referred to the gastroenterologist because of rectal blood loss. Colonoscopy revealed a spontaneously bleeding lesion, which was not a typical colorectal carcinoma by optical diagnosis. Biopsies confirmed the diagnosis of recurrence of the former ovarian carcinoma. The patient was not eligible for surgical resection due to former abdominal surgery and she declined chemotherapy due to severe side effects earlier. After a multidisciplinary team consultation, she was treated with endoscopic full-thickness resection (eFTR). This is a minimally invasive resection technique for removal of challenging colorectal lesions. The patient has recovered well and 2 years after the metastasis resection with eFTR there still have been no signs of recurrent malignancy.

Recurrences of advanced sessile and lateral spreading colorectal adenoma after endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) thermal ablation versus no adjuvant therapy (RESPECT): a protocol of an international randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Nowadays, large benign lateral spreading lesions (LSLs) and sessile polyps in the colorectum are mostly resected by endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR). A major drawback of EMR is the polyp recurrence rate of up to 20%. Snare tip soft coagulation (STSC) is considered an effective technique to reduce recurrence rates. However, clinical trials on STSC have mainly been conducted in expert referral centers. In these studies, polyp recurrence was assessed optically, and additional adjunctive techniques were excluded. In the current trial, we will evaluate the efficacy and safety of STSC in daily practice, by allowing adjunctive techniques during EMR and the use of both optical and histological polyp recurrence to assess recurrences during follow-up. METHODS: The RESPECT study is a multicenter, parallel-group, international single blinded randomized controlled superiority trial performed in the Netherlands and Germany. A total of 306 patients undergoing piecemeal EMR for LSLs or sessile colorectal polyps sized 20-60 mm will be randomized during the procedure after endoscopic complete polyp resection to the intervention or control group. Post-EMR defects allocated to the intervention group will be treated with thermal ablation with STSC of the entire resection margin. Primary outcome will be polyp recurrence by optical and histological confirmation at the first surveillance colonoscopy after 6 months. Secondary outcomes include technical success and complication rates. DISCUSSION: The RESPECT study will evaluate if STSC is effective in reducing recurrence rates after piecemeal EMR of large colorectal lesions in daily clinical practice performed by expert and non-expert endoscopists. Moreover, endoscopists will be allowed to use adjunctive techniques to remove remaining adenomatous tissue during the procedure. Finally, adenomatous polyp recurrence during follow-up will be defined by histologic identification. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05121805. Registered on 16 November 2021. Start recruitment: 17 March 2022. Planned completion of recruitment: 31 April 2025.

The additive value of CA19.9 monitoring in a pancreatic cyst surveillance program.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of pancreatic cysts focuses on the detection of (mostly morphologic) features warranting surgery. European guidelines consider elevated CA19.9 as a relative indication for surgery. We aimed to evaluate the role of CA19.9 monitoring for early detection and management in a cyst surveillance population. METHODS: The PACYFIC-registry is a prospective collaboration that investigates the yield of pancreatic cyst surveillance performed at the discretion of the treating physician. We included participants for whom at least one serum CA19.9 value was determined by a minimum follow-up of 12 months. RESULTS: Of 1865 PACYFIC participants, 685 met the inclusion criteria for this study (mean age 67 years, SD 10; 61% female). During a median follow-up of 25 months (IQR 24, 1966 visits), 29 participants developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer. At baseline, CA19.9 ranged from 1 to 591 kU/L (median 10 kU/L [IQR 14]), and was elevated (≥37 kU/L) in 64 participants (9%). During 191 of 1966 visits (10%), an elevated CA19.9 was detected, and these visits more often led to an intensified follow-up (42%) than those without an elevated CA19.9 (27%; p < 0.001). An elevated CA19.9 was the sole reason for surgery in five participants with benign disease (10%). The baseline CA19.9 value was (as continuous or dichotomous variable at the 37 kU/L threshold) not independently associated with HGD or pancreatic cancer development, whilst a CA19.9 of ≥ 133 kU/L was (HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In this pancreatic cyst surveillance cohort, CA19.9 monitoring caused substantial harm by shortening surveillance intervals (and performance of unnecessary surgery). The current CA19.9 cutoff was not predictive of HGD and pancreatic cancer, whereas a higher cutoff may decrease false-positive values. The role of CA19.9 monitoring should be critically appraised prior to implementation in surveillance programs and guidelines.

Active surveillance of oesophageal cancer after response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: dysphagia is uncommon.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance is being investigated as an alternative to standard surgery after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal cancer. It is unknown whether dysphagia persists or develops when the oesophagus is preserved after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and severity of dysphagia during active surveillance in patients with an ongoing response. METHODS: Patients who underwent active surveillance were identified from the Surgery As Needed for Oesophageal cancer ('SANO') trial. Patients without evidence of residual oesophageal cancer until at least 6 months after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy were included. Study endpoints were assessed at time points that patients were cancer-free and remained cancer-free for the next 4 months. Dysphagia scores were evaluated at 6, 9, 12, and 16 months after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Scores were based on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer oesophago-gastric quality-of-life questionnaire 25 (EORTC QLQ-OG25) (range 0-100; no to severe dysphagia). The rate of patients with a (non-)traversable stenosis was determined based on all available endoscopy reports. RESULTS: In total, 131 patients were included, of whom 93 (71.0 per cent) had adenocarcinoma, 93 (71.0 per cent) had a cT3-4a tumour, and 33 (25.2 per cent) had a tumour circumference of greater than 75 per cent at endoscopy; 60.8 to 71.0 per cent of patients completed questionnaires per time point after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. At all time points after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, median dysphagia scores were 0 (interquartile range 0-0). Two patients (1.5 per cent) underwent an intervention for a stenosis: one underwent successful endoscopic dilatation; and the other patient required temporary tube feeding. Notably, these patients did not participate in questionnaires. CONCLUSION: Dysphagia and clinically relevant stenosis are uncommon during active surveillance.

Patient selection for urgent endoscopic retrograde cholangio-pancreatography by endoscopic ultrasound in predicted severe acute biliary pancreatitis (APEC-2): a multicentre prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Routine urgent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) with endoscopic biliary sphincterotomy (ES) does not improve outcome in patients with predicted severe acute biliary pancreatitis. Improved patient selection for ERCP by means of endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) for stone/sludge detection may challenge these findings. DESIGN: A multicentre, prospective cohort study included patients with predicted severe acute biliary pancreatitis without cholangitis. Patients underwent urgent EUS, followed by ERCP with ES in case of common bile duct stones/sludge, within 24 hours after hospital presentation and within 72 hours after symptom onset. The primary endpoint was a composite of major complications or mortality within 6 months after inclusion. The historical control group was the conservative treatment arm (n=113) of the randomised APEC trial (Acute biliary Pancreatitis: urgent ERCP with sphincterotomy versus conservative treatment, patient inclusion 2013-2017) applying the same study design. RESULTS: Overall, 83 patients underwent urgent EUS at a median of 21 hours (IQR 17-23) after hospital presentation and at a median of 29 hours (IQR 23-41) after start of symptoms. Gallstones/sludge in the bile ducts were detected by EUS in 48/83 patients (58%), all of whom underwent immediate ERCP with ES. The primary endpoint occurred in 34/83 patients (41%) in the urgent EUS-guided ERCP group. This was not different from the 44% rate (50/113 patients) in the historical conservative treatment group (risk ratio (RR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.29; p=0.65). Sensitivity analysis to correct for baseline differences using a logistic regression model also showed no significant beneficial effect of the intervention on the primary outcome (adjusted OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.90, p=0.92). CONCLUSION: In patients with predicted severe acute biliary pancreatitis without cholangitis, urgent EUS-guided ERCP with ES did not reduce the composite endpoint of major complications or mortality, as compared with conservative treatment in a historical control group. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15545919.

Endoscopic therapy replaces surgery for clinical T1 oesophageal cancer in the Netherlands: a nationwide population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic resection for early oesophageal cancer was introduced around 2000 in the Netherlands. The scientific question was how the treatment and survival of early oesophageal and gastro-oesophageal junction cancer has changed over time in the Netherlands. METHODS: Data were obtained from the nationwide population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry. All patients diagnosed with clinical in situ or T1 oesophageal or GOJ cancer without lymph node or distance metastasis during the study period (2000-2014) were extracted. Primary outcome parameters were the trends in treatment modalities over time and relative survival of each treatment regime. RESULTS: A total of 1020 patients were diagnosed with a clinical in situ or T1 oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancer without lymph node or distance metastasis. The proportion of patients who received endoscopic treatment increased from 2.5% in 2000 to 58.1% in 2014. During the same period the proportion of patients who received surgery decreased from 57.5 to 23.1%. Five-year relative survival of all patients was 69%. Five-year relative survival after endoscopic therapy was 83% and after surgery 80%. Relative excess risk analyses showed no significant difference in survival between patients in the endoscopic therapy group and patients in the surgery group after adjustment for age, sex, clinical TNM classification, morphology and tumour location (RER 1.15; CI 0.76-1.75; p 0.76). CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate an increase in endoscopic treatment and a decrease of surgical treatment for in situ and T1 oesophageal/GOJ cancer between 2000-2014 in the Netherlands. The relative 5-year survival after endoscopic treatment is high (83%) and comparable with surgery (80%).

Relapse rates after withdrawal versus maintaining biologic therapy in IBD patients with prolonged remission.

Biologic treatment withdrawal in inflammatory bowel disease patients with prolonged remission may lead to benefits but also increases the risk of getting a relapse. The risk of relapse after biologic withdrawal according to the Dutch STOP-criteria is still unknown. The aim of this study was to compare the cumulative incidence of relapse in inflammatory bowel disease patients that discontinued biologic therapy after applying the STOP-criteria with patients who maintained biologic therapy. We performed a mono-centre, observational, retrospective study by evaluating relapse risk of patients treated with biologic agents who discontinued this treatment according to the STOP-criteria (STOP-group) compared to patients who were in remission for more than 3 years before withdrawal (LATERSTOP-group) and patients who continued their biologic (MAINTAIN-group). The cumulative risk was calculated at 12 and 36 months using the log-rank test to compare Kaplan-Meier curves. Eighty-three of 398 patients that used biologics between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2020 were included. The cumulative relapse incidences in the STOP-group and the LATERSTOP-group were, respectively, 29% and 42% at 12 months and 47% versus 58% at 36 months. Patients in the MAINTAIN-group showed a lower (p = 0.03) cumulative relapse incidence of 10% at 12 months and 18% at 36 months. Patients who discontinued their biologic therapy according to the STOP-criteria had significantly more relapses at 12 and 36 months than patients who maintained biologic treatment.

The course of pain and dysphagia after radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus-related neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is effective for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) neoplasia, but little is known on the course of pain and dysphagia after RFA. We aimed to describe the course of post-RFA symptoms and to identify possible associated risk factors. METHODS: In this multicenter, observational cohort study, all RFA procedures registered in a prospective database were included. Patient and treatment characteristics were collected from medical records and patients self-registered post-procedural symptoms in electronic symptom diaries for 14 days. Mixed model regression was used for the analyses. RESULTS: In total, 255 diaries were completed. Post-RFA pain was reported for 95 % (95 %CI 93-98) of procedures (median duration 14 days; 25th-75th percentiles [p25-p75] 11-14) and major pain for 64 % (95 %CI 58-69; median duration 8 days, p25-p75 3-13). Post-procedural pain significantly increased with BE length, younger age, and no prior ablation. Dysphagia was present after 83 % (95 %CI 79-88) of procedures (median duration 13 days, p25-p75 9-14). The risk of dysphagia decreased with age and increased when patients experienced more pain. CONCLUSIONS: RFA treatment for BE-related neoplasia seems a significant burden for patients, and post-procedural symptoms should be taken into account when counseling patients before starting endoscopic eradication therapy.

Clinical Relevance of Random Biopsies From the Esophagogastric Junction After Complete Eradication of Barrett's Esophagus is Low.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although random histological sampling from the esophagogastric junction (EGJ) after complete eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) is recommended, its clinical relevance is questionable. This study aimed to assess the incidence and long-term outcomes of findings from random EGJ biopsies in a nationwide cohort with long-term follow-up. METHODS: We included all patients with successful endoscopic eradication therapy (EET), defined as complete endoscopic eradication of all visible BE (CE-BE), for early BE neoplasia from the Dutch registry. Patients were treated and followed-up in 9 expert centers according to a joint protocol. Outcomes included the incidence of intestinal metaplasia (IM) at the EGJ (EGJ-IM) and the association between IM and visible (dysplastic) BE recurrence. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients were included with a median follow-up of 43 months (interquartile range, 22-69 months). At the time of CE-BE, persisting EGJ-IM was found in 7% of patients (78/1154), which was reproduced during further follow-up in 46% of patients (42/78). No significant association existed between persisting EGJ-IM at CE-BE and recurrent non-dysplastic or dysplastic BE (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-2.13 and HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.17-3.06, respectively). Among patients with no EGJ-IM at the time of CE-BE (1043/1154; 90%), EGJ-IM recurred in 7% (72/1043) after a median of 21 months (interquartile range, 15-36 months), and was reproduced during further follow-up in 26% of patients (19/72). No association was found between recurrent EGJ-IM and non-dysplastic or dysplastic recurrence (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.67-2.06 and HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.04-1.96, respectively). CONCLUSION: Because EGJ-IM was not associated with a higher risk for recurrent disease, we recommend to consider abandoning random EGJ sampling after successful EET, under the condition that care is provided in expert centers, and the esophagus, including the EGJ, is carefully inspected (Netherlands Trial Register, NL7309).

Wide-area transepithelial sampling with computer-assisted analysis to detect high grade dysplasia and cancer in Barrett's esophagus: a multicenter randomized study.

BACKGROUND: Current surveillance for Barrett's esophagus (BE), consisting of four-quadrant random forceps biopsies (FBs), has an inherent risk of sampling error. Wide-area transepithelial sampling (WATS) may increase detection of high grade dysplasia (HGD) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In this multicenter randomized trial, we aimed to evaluate WATS as a substitute for FB. METHODS: Patients with known BE and a recent history of dysplasia, without visible lesions, at 17 hospitals were randomized to receive either WATS followed by FB or vice versa. All WATS samples were examined, with computer assistance, by at least two experienced pathologists at the CDx Diagnostics laboratory. Similarly, all FBs were examined by two expert pathologists. The primary end point was concordance/discordance for detection of HGD/EAC between the two techniques. RESULTS: 172 patients were included, of whom 21 had HGD/EAC detected by both modalities, 18 had HGD/EAC detected by WATS but missed by FB, and 12 were detected by FB but missed by WATS. The detection rate of HGD/EAC did not differ between WATS and FB (P = 0.36). Using WATS as an adjunct to FB significantly increased the detection of HGD/EAC vs. FB alone (absolute increase 10 % [95 %CI 6 % to 16 %]). Mean procedural times in minutes for FB alone, WATS alone, and the combination were 6.6 (95 %CI 5.9 to 7.1), 4.9 (95 %CI 4.1 to 5.4), and 11.2 (95 %CI 10.5 to 14.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although the combination of WATS and FB increases dysplasia detection in a population of BE patients enriched for dysplasia, we did not find a statistically significant difference between WATS and FB for the detection of HGD/EAC as single modality.

Artificial intelligence in (gastrointestinal) healthcare: patients' and physicians' perspectives.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is entering into daily life and has the potential to play a significant role in healthcare. Aim was to investigate the perspectives (knowledge, experience, and opinion) on AI in healthcare among patients with gastrointestinal (GI) disorders, gastroenterologists, and GI-fellows. In this prospective questionnaire study 377 GI-patients, 35 gastroenterologists, and 45 GI-fellows participated. Of GI-patients, 62.5% reported to be familiar with AI and 25.0% of GI-physicians had work-related experience with AI. GI-patients preferred their physicians to use AI (mean 3.9) and GI-physicians were willing to use AI (mean 4.4, on 5-point Likert-scale). More GI-physicians believed in an increase in quality of care (81.3%) than GI-patients (64.9%, χ2(2) = 8.2, p = 0.017). GI-fellows expected AI implementation within 6.0 years, gastroenterologists within 4.2 years (t(76) = - 2.6, p = 0.011), and GI-patients within 6.1 years (t(193) = - 2.0, p = 0.047). GI-patients and GI-physicians agreed on the most important advantages of AI in healthcare: improving quality of care, time saving, and faster diagnostics and shorter waiting times. The most important disadvantage for GI-patients was the potential loss of personal contact, for GI-physicians this was insufficiently developed IT infrastructures. GI-patients and GI-physicians hold positive perspectives towards AI in healthcare. Patients were significantly more reserved compared to GI-fellows and GI-fellows were more reserved compared to gastroenterologists.

Barrett Esophagus: Quality of life and factors associated with illness perception.

BACKGROUND: Health-related Quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE), a premalignant condition, may be influenced by gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms and the risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: We aim to investigate HRQoL in non-dysplastic Barrett Esophagus (NDBE) patients, identify factors associated with a negative illness perception of the diagnosis BE and compare outcomes between patients treated in a specialized BE center with non-expert centers. In this multi-center cross-sectional study, HRQoL of NDBE patients were assessed using the Short Form 36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Cancer worry Scale, and Reflux Disease Questionnaire. A multivariable, linear regression analysis was conducted to assess factors associated with illness perception (Illness perception scale) of the BE diagnosis. Outcome parameters of patients from expert centers were compared to non-expert centers. RESULTS: A total of 859 NDBE patients (mean age 63.6% and 74.5% male), of which 640 from BE expert centers were included. BE patients scored similar or higher means (i.e. better) on generic HRQoL in comparison with a Dutch norm population. The multivariable regression model showed that cancer worry, GERD symptoms, signs of anxiety and depression, and female gender were associated with a negative illness perception of BE. GERD symptoms were reported in the minority (22.4%) of BE patients. Levels of anxiety symptoms were comparable to a Dutch norm population (mean 3.7 vs. 3.9 p 0.183) and lower for depression symptoms (mean 6.8 vs. 7.6 p < 0.001). Overall, there were no differences found on outcomes between expert centers and non-expert centers. CONCLUSION: NDBE patients scored similar or better on generic HRQoL, anxiety and depression than an age and gender matched norm population. The presence of cancer worry, gastrointestinal symptoms, anxiety and depression, and female gender are factors associated with a negative illness perception of the diagnosis BE.

Bite-on-bite biopsies for the detection of residual esophageal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance after neoadjuvant treatment is increasingly implemented. The success of this strategy relies on the accurate detection of residual cancer. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic value of a second (bite-on-bite) biopsy for the detection of residual esophageal cancer and to correlate outcomes to the distribution of residual cancer found in the resection specimen. METHODS: A multicenter prospective study of esophageal cancer patients undergoing active surveillance after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was performed. At clinical response evaluations, an upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy was performed with at least four bite-on-bite biopsies of the primary tumor site. First and second biopsies were analyzed separately. Patients with histopathological evidence of residual cancer were included in the primary analysis. Two pathologists blinded for biopsy outcome examined all resection specimens. RESULTS: Between October 2017 and July 2020, 626 upper GI endoscopies were performed in 367 patients. Of 138 patients with residual cancer, 112 patients (81 %) had at least one positive biopsy. In 14 patients (10 %) only the first biopsy was positive and in 25 patients (18 %) only the second biopsy (P = 0.11). Remarkably, the rates of patients with tumor-free mucosa and deeper located tumors were higher in patients detected by the first biopsy. The second biopsy increased the false-positive rate by 3 percentage points. No adverse events occurred. CONCLUSIONS: A second (bite-on-bite) biopsy improves the detection of residual esophageal cancer by almost 20 percentage points, at the expense of increasing the false-positive rate by 3 percentage points. The higher detection rate is explained by the higher number of biopsies obtained rather than by the penetration depth.

Dysplastic Recurrence After Successful Treatment for Early Barrett's Neoplasia: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The combination of endoscopic resection and radiofrequency ablation is the treatment of choice for eradication of Barrett's esophagus (BE) with dysplasia and/or early cancer. Currently, there are no evidence-based recommendations on how to survey patients after successful treatment, and most patients undergo frequent follow-up endoscopies. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prediction model for visible dysplastic recurrence, which can be used to personalize surveillance after treatment. METHODS: We collected data from the Dutch Barrett Expert Center Registry, a nationwide registry that captures outcomes from all patients with BE undergoing endoscopic treatment in the Netherlands in a centralized care setting. We used predictors related to demographics, severity of reflux, histologic status at baseline, and treatment characteristics. We built a Fine and Gray survival model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalization to predict the incidence of visible dysplastic recurrence after initial successful treatment. The model was validated externally in patients with BE treated in Switzerland and Belgium. RESULTS: A total of 1154 patients with complete BE eradication were included for model building. During a mean endoscopic follow-up of 4 years, 38 patients developed recurrent disease (1.0%/person-year). The following characteristics were independently associated with recurrence (strongest to weakest predictor): a new visible lesion during treatment phase, higher number of endoscopic resection treatments, male sex, increasing BE length, high-grade dysplasia or cancer at baseline, and younger age. External validation showed a C-statistic of 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.94) with good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first externally validated model to predict visible dysplastic recurrence after successful endoscopic eradication treatment of BE with dysplasia or early cancer. On external validation, our model has good discrimination and calibration. This model can help clinicians and patients to determine a personalized follow-up strategy.

Development and External Validation of a Model to Predict Complex Treatment After Radiofrequency Ablation for Barrett's Esophagus With Early Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Endoscopic eradication therapy for Barrett's esophagus (BE)-related neoplasia is safe and leads to complete eradication in the majority of patients. However, a subgroup will experience a more complex treatment course with a risk for failure or disease progression. Early identification of these patients may improve patient counseling and treatment outcomes. We aimed to develop a prognostic model for a complex treatment course. METHODS: We collected data from a nationwide registry that captures outcomes for all patients undergoing endoscopic eradication therapy for early BE neoplasia. A complex treatment course was defined as neoplastic progression, treatment failure, or the need for endoscopic resection during the radiofrequency ablation treatment phase. We developed a prognostic model using logistic regression. We externally validated our model in an independent registry. RESULTS: A total of 1386 patients were included, of whom 78 (6%) had a complex treatment course. Our model identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer with a visible lesion containing high-grade dysplasia/cancer, and patients with less than 50% squamous conversion after radiofrequency ablation were identified as high risk for a complex treatment. This applied to 8% of the study population and included 93% of all treatment failures and 76% of all patients with advanced neoplastic progression. The model appeared robust in multiple sensitivity analyses and performed well in external validation (area under the curve, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a prognostic model that identified patients with a BE length of 9 cm or longer and high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma and those with poor squamous regeneration as high risk for a complex treatment course. The good performance in external validation suggests that it may be used in clinical management (Netherlands Trial Register: NL7039).

Analysis of metastases rates during follow-up after endoscopic resection of early "high-risk" esophageal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: After endoscopic resection (ER) of early esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the optimal management of patients with high-risk histologic features for lymph node metastases (ie, submucosal invasion, poor differentiation grade, or lymphovascular invasion) remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate outcomes of endoscopic follow-up after ER for high-risk EAC. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort study, data were collected from all Dutch patients managed with endoscopic follow-up (endoscopy, EUS) after ER for high-risk EAC between 2008 and 2019. We distinguished 3 groups: intramucosal cancers with high-risk features, submucosal cancers with low-risk features, and submucosal cancers with high-risk features. The primary outcome was the annual risk for metastases during follow-up, stratified for baseline histology. RESULTS: One hundred twenty patients met the selection criteria. Median follow-up was 29 months (interquartile range, 15-48). Metastases were observed in 5 of 25 (annual risk, 6.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-15) high-risk intramucosal cancers, 1 of 55 (annual risk, .7%; 95% CI, 0-4.0) low-risk submucosal cancers, and 3 of 40 (annual risk, 3.0%; 95% CI, 0-7.0) high-risk submucosal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas the annual metastasis rate for high-risk submucosal EAC (3.0%) was somewhat lower than expected in comparison with previous reported percentages, the annual metastasis rate of 6.9% for high-risk intramucosal EAC is new and worrisome. This calls for further prospective studies and suggests that strict follow-up of this small subgroup is warranted until prospective data are available.